Water Exalted AliceTier 2
at 貓腳印三民店 Store Champion
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-4-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
26.1%
avg ELO -15.3 per match
expected value
37.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
37.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1139
· median 1139
· range 1139–1139
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1096
Q1 1145
Q3 1318
1523
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 16.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.6% | -15.8 |
| Water Fractal | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Exalted Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
